The 2026 Tech IPO Market: What’s Coming, What’s Overvalued, and What to Watch

The IPO market has been closed to tech companies for approximately three years, following the 2022 rate shock that repriced growth assets and made the gap between private valuations and public market expectations too wide for most companies to bridge. That gap is narrowing.

Several significant tech IPOs are expected in the next 18 months. The most-watched: Anthropic, which has been explicit that a public offering is not imminent but has built the financial infrastructure that suggests one is in preparation; Databricks, which closed a $10 billion Series J in 2024 at a $62 billion valuation; Klarna, which filed confidentially and is expected to price in Q3; and Canva, which has grown revenue to approximately $2.5 billion annually and could be the largest Australian tech IPO in history.

What’s Overvalued

The hardest category to assess is AI infrastructure: companies building tooling, evaluation frameworks, and deployment infrastructure for AI systems. Many of these companies have significant revenue but customer concentration risk — a disproportionate share of their revenue comes from one or two large AI labs whose own business trajectories are uncertain. They are also operating in markets where the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are investing heavily in building equivalent capability internally. The window of opportunity may be shorter than the valuations imply.

What to Watch

The Anthropic IPO scenario, if it happens, will be the most consequential. Anthropic’s revenue has grown rapidly, but its compute costs are substantial and its path to profitability at current pricing is non-obvious. The market’s valuation of Anthropic will be the most important data point in 2026 for how public markets think about AI business models.