Why Baldur’s Gate 3 Changed the Business Model for RPGs Forever

Baldur’s Gate 3 sold 15 million copies in its first year. It won Game of the Year at every major awards ceremony in 2023. It was made by a studio of approximately 400 people over six years, funded by early access revenue rather than publisher advances, and released as a complete game with no paid DLC.

This is not how the games industry expected a 100-hour RPG to be made or distributed in 2023. And the industry is still arguing about what it means.

The Model It Broke

The dominant model for major RPGs in the decade before BG3 was: large publisher advances, multi-year development, launch with a base game, monetise through paid expansions and cosmetic DLC. The Witcher 3, Dragon Age Inquisition, Mass Effect Andromeda, Cyberpunk 2077 — all of them followed some version of this pattern.

Larian rejected it not out of ideology but out of structural necessity. Without a major publisher backer, they needed to fund development from sales. Early access on PC gave them the revenue stream and, more valuably, a direct feedback loop with players that shaped the game’s design in ways that proved decisive for its quality.

The Problem with Copying It

The BG3 model is not easily replicable. Larian had an existing fanbase from the Divinity: Original Sin series. They had the Dungeons & Dragons licence, which provided a built-in audience and marketing shorthand. They had a studio culture of long-term development without the quarterly pressure of a public company.

Most studios trying to replicate the BG3 model would need: years of runway without publisher income, a compelling enough concept to sustain early access sales, and the discipline to not ship until the game is actually finished. All three are harder than they sound.